Keep Up the Pressure on Myanmar’s Generals
By PETER POPHAM
AS the only obvious alternative to what Winston Churchill is said to have called “jaw-jaw” and “war-war,” economic sanctions have a mixed record. They have yet to show any sign of bringing
But in Myanmar, which has been ruled for half a century by its army, more than two decades of sanctions finally seem to be doing the trick. That is a good reason to keep the pressure on until the Burmese people are truly free.
The West gave up on jaw-jaw — diplomatic efforts to persuade the government to lighten its rule — after 1988, when the army killed several thousand unarmed protesters. It froze economic links with
Now, with the country beginning to change rapidly, demands for lifting the sanctions are rising. On Feb. 24, Vijay Nambiar, the special adviser on
But before doing so, the West would do well to look closely at what sanctions have and have not achieved, and at how they have worked.
Sanctions did not directly bring the Burmese government to its knees. Instead, they forced it to rely heavily on its Southeast Asian neighbors, on
As a result, some Westerners argued that sanctions were at best useless. Derek Tonkin, a former British ambassador to
But that view is no longer valid. An outrageously fixed election in November 2010 replaced naked military rule with a Parliament and a pseudo-democratic government. Little was expected of it until last August, when the new president, U Thein Sein, formerly a long-serving general, invited the democratic icon Daw Aung San Suu Kyi to meet him in Naypyidaw, the capital. They were photographed there under a portrait of Mrs. Aung San Suu Kyi’s father, Aung San, a hero of Burmese independence from
Mr. Thein Sein’s government has also legalized trade unions and set up a human rights commission. Hundreds of political prisoners have been set free. In addition, a dam project backed by the Chinese was suspended and an official cease-fire was announced with the Karen minority, who had been battling the Burmese state since 1949.
Why the sudden appetite for reform? The relationship with
To avoid complete domination by
These changes are welcome. But to heed the siren voices that call for eliminating sanctions now would be to throw away the only lever the West possesses for more basic reforms.
American sanctions on
But the heavy lifting of reform remains to be done. The Constitution still guarantees the military a dominant role in politics. If President Thein Sein were suddenly to die, his successor could legally reimpose direct army rule. The cease-fire with the Karen is only a first step toward a peace settlement with
The economy, meanwhile, remains primitive, dominated by retired generals and their cronies. Civil society is only beginning to raise its head. Political prisoners have not been released unconditionally; their sentences have merely been suspended.
The way ahead is therefore clear: Since the Burmese government’s steps so far have been dramatic but largely symbolic, the West, too, should repeal measures that sound more important than they are: the visa bans and asset freezes, for example. These steps could be announced if the April 1 elections are carried out smoothly and fairly. But the sanctions that bite, specifically the ban on access to American financial facilities, should remain in place until we see whether
If the day of the carrot has arrived, it is not yet time to throw away the stick.
Peter Popham, a foreign correspondent for The Independent, is the author of the forthcoming book “The Lady and the Peacock: The Life of Aung San Suu Kyi.”
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"The master class has always declared the wars; the subject class has always fought the battles. The master class has had all to gain and nothing to lose, while the subject class has had nothing to gain and everything to lose--especially their lives." Eugene Victor Debs
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